Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys
This study assesses potential impacts of sea level rise in the Florida Keys using LiDAR-based elevation models and GIS analysis. Projections evaluate land, population, and property inundation under multiple scenarios through 2100, revealing non-linear flooding dynamics and greater vulnerability in the Lower Keys compared to the Upper Keys.
Subject Tags
- Climate impacts
- Coastal
- Climate resilience
Abstract
The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on 95% of the land areas of the Florida Keys were estimated through analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements in a geographic information system. The topographic detail of the LiDAR DEM allowed projections of land, population, and property inundation in 0.15 m increments across a broad range of SLR scenarios for the next century. The results showed that a 0.6 m SLR by 2100 would inundate about 70% of the total land surface, but smaller percentages of the population (17%) and real property (12%). A 1.5 m rise in sea level during the same period would inundate 91% of the land surface, 71% of the population and 68% of property in the study area. Comparison of inundation dynamics indicates that the Lower Florida Keys are more susceptible to SLR than the Upper Florida Keys. The inundation dynamics exhibit non-linear behavior and demonstrate tipping points in inundation processes beyond which the inundation of land, population, and property speeds up. Acceleration of SLR will amplify the non-linear inundation, causing tipping points to be reached sooner.
Citation
Zhang, K., Dittmar, J., Ross, M., & Bergh, C. (2011). Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys. Climatic Change, 107(1), 129-146.
TNC Authors
-
Chris Bergh
Field Program Director. Florida
The Nature Conservancy
Email: cbergh@tnc.org