Retrospective analysis and sea level rise modeling of coastal habitat change in Charlotte Harbor to identify restoration and adaptation priorities
This study examines historical and projected coastal habitat change in Charlotte Harbor, Florida, by comparing past habitat data with sea level rise modeling through 2100. Results indicate net losses of tidal flats, coastal forests, and freshwater marshes under multiple scenarios, informing long-term adaptation, restoration, and management priorities.
Subject Tags
- Coastal
- Climate resilience
- Wetlands
Abstract
Charlotte Harbor, Florida, is a series of interconnected shallow estuaries surrounded by low-lying uplands and a population of approximately 780,000 people. Direct and indirect impacts of human development as well as an accelerating rate of sea level rise have had and will continue to have dramatic effects on the distribution of this system's coastal habitats. The long term sustainability of this estuarine system and surrounding human communities depends on understanding past and predicted future coastal scenarios, allowing effective adaptation, restoration and management decisions. To understand historical changes, we compared recent coastal habitat distribution information to that reported in an earlier study (Harris et al., 1983) using geospatial analysis. To understand likely future conditions, we applied the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) over a 100 year period using slower, moderate and faster sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of 0.7 m, 1.0 m and 2.0 m, respectively. Our analyses show that while some coastal wetland habitats increased over the sixty year period from 1945 to present, modeling results through 2100 predicted net losses of tidal flat, coastal forest and inland freshwater marsh under all three SLR scenarios. Mangrove swamp and saltmarsh decreased under the fastest rate of SLR modeled.
Citation
Geselbracht, L., Freeman, K., Kelly, E., Gordon, D., & Birch, A. (2013). Retrospective analysis and sea level rise modeling of coastal habitat change in Charlotte Harbor to identify restoration and adaptation priorities. Florida Scientist, 328-355.
TNC Authors
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Laura Geselbracht
Senior Marine Scientist. Florida
The Nature Conservancy
Email: lgeselbracht@tnc.org -
Freeman Kathleen
The Nature Conservancy -
A. Birch
The Nature Conservancy