A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration

Published Article

Global

Publication date: July 3, 2026

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Drawing on 146 studies across tropical moist forests, this meta analysis evaluates aboveground carbon losses from fire, selective logging, and edge effects, along with carbon gains during regeneration. Results show substantial recovery potential in degraded forests, providing critical evidence to improve carbon accounting, climate mitigation, and forest restoration policies.

Subject Tags

  • Forests
  • Carbon storage
  • Climate mitigation

Abstract

Aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes from deforestation and subsequent regrowth in tropical moist forest (TMF) are increasingly well characterized, but carbon losses and gains following partial disturbance are uncertain. We synthesized 146 studies quantifying postdisturbance AGC changes relative to undisturbed forests across TMF. Immediate AGC losses (mean ± 1 SD; 2.5 ± 2.3 years after disturbance) following partial anthropogenic disturbances were greatest for forest fires (49 ± 26%), selective logging (34 ± 20%), and edge effects (31 ± 19%). Higher-frequency and -intensity disturbances significantly increased carbon loss. After 20 years of regeneration, AGC stock was higher in recovering degraded forests (41 to 117%) compared to secondary regrowth forests after complete deforestation (1 to 74%), indicating greater regeneration potential when forest structure is preserved. Our compiled database and associated meta-analysis improve accuracy and completeness for carbon inventory reporting and modeling. Substantial AGC losses and gains from distinct degradation and recovery processes are now better characterized, serving as an evidence base for policies to halt degradation and foster recovery for climate mitigation.

Citation

Viola Heinrich et al. A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration.Sci. Adv.12,eadz1923(2026).DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adz1923

TNC Authors

  • Susan Cook-Patton
    Science and Strategy Integration Director. Tackle Climate Change
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: susan.cook-patton@tnc.org

  • Ava Nafiseh Goodarzi
    Ecosystem Resilience Scientist. Global Science
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: n.haghtalab@tnc.org

  • Erin Poor
    Landscape Ecologist. Tackle Climate Change
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: erin.poor@tnc.org

  • Luke Parsons
    Applied Climate Modeling Scientist. Global Science
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: luke.parsons@tnc.org

  • Serge Wiltshire
    Applied Scientist II-IC. North America Office
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: serge.wiltshire@tnc.org