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The future Prairie Pothole Region: scenarios of change

Published Article

United States, Canada

Publication date: June 17, 2025

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Agriculture has transformed the Prairie Pothole Region, intensifying yields, wetland drainage and rural conflict. To build shared understanding of future change, experts participated in a Delphi process to develop scenarios describing potential trajectories, drivers and impacts. Three organizing principles emerged—agricultural growth, regulatory environments and climate change. Of six scenarios, only two reached consensus as credible: Agriculture as Usual and Unmitigated Climate Change, both characterized by limited regulation. Across scenarios, experts agreed that rural populations will continue to decline, with strong alignment on expected shifts in social license to farm, flood risk, wetland extent and biodiversity. These scenario‑based boundary objects can support dialogue and inform regional planning.

Subject Tags

  • Wetlands
  • Agriculture
  • Climate impacts

Abstract

Agriculture has driven important changes within the Prairie Pothole Region, for example, with major yield increases in recent decades. Changes are ongoing, with widespread wetland drainage in areas, and evidence of growing rural conflict over drainage and other issues. Research to develop common understandings of change can help address conflict and develop shared vision. Here, we used expert elicitation via a Delphi process to develop scenarios of the future, understand potential trajectories of change, drivers and effects, and develop boundary objects that can be used in building dialogue. Using a grounded and inductive approach we identified three organizing principles that drove scenarios—future agricultural growth, the future regulatory environment and climate change. Although six scenarios were developed, only two achieved consensus as credible (i.e., ≥75% indicating this was supported by current understanding of the system and its changes). Both scenarios (Agriculture as Usual and Unmitigated Climate Change) are typified by limited regulation. All scenarios suggest rural population will continue to decrease (or “decrease or stay the same”; consensus reached in four of six scenarios). Relatively high agreement was also seen for changes in social license to farm, flood risk, wetland extent and biodiversity, with lesser agreement on economic indicators.

Citation

Selby, D., Loring, P. A., & Baulch, H. M. (2025). The future Prairie Pothole Region: scenarios of change. FACETS, 10, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2024-0278

TNC Authors

  • Philip A. Loring
    Global Director of Human Dimensions Science
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: philip.loring@tnc.org