Modeling cropland conversion for conservation prioritization across the United States
Describes a spatially explicit probability layer identifying areas at high risk of future cropping across the conterminous United States. Based on climate, geomorphology, and soil data, this dataset provides a baseline for prioritizing conservation in vulnerable natural ecosystems and supports more targeted, regionally specific planning when combined with socioeconomic data.
Subject Tags
- Conservation Planning
- Climate risks
- Ecosystem management
Abstract
Understanding the spatial pattern of cropping is crucial for proactive conservation efforts in vulnerable ecosystems. This paper presents a spatially explicit probability layer for the conterminous United States which identifies areas of high likelihood of future cropping (i.e., probability of being tilled) based on key geophysical measures of climate, geomorphology, and soil. This dataset identifies areas with a high propensity for cultivation, offering a critical baseline for prioritizing conservation strategies in remaining natural ecosystems at risk of conversion. Derived using underlying geophysical processes, this spatially explicit output can be combined with socio-economic data for more nuanced and regionally specific conservation planning. This resource provides a valuable tool for researchers, land managers, and policymakers seeking to mitigate the impacts of cropping on these ecosystems.
Citation
Hovis, C., Evans, J. S., Kazanski, C., Martin, B. H., Naugle, D. E., Yacobson, E., & Fargione, J. (2026). Modeling cropland conversion for conservation prioritization across the United States. Scientific Data.
TNC Authors
-
Ciara Hovis
Data Scientist. North America Office
The Nature Conservancy
Email: ciara.hovis@tnc.org -
Clare Kazanski
Senior Scientist. North America Office
The Nature Conservancy
Email: clare.kazanski@tnc.org -
Brian H. Martin
Senior Conservation Specialist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: bmartin@tnc.org -
Eugene Yacobson
Conservation Info Mgr IV. Midwest US Office
The Nature Conservancy
Email: eyacobson@tnc.org
TNC Authors
-
Joseph Fargione
Dir of Science, N Amer Region • North America Office
The Nature Conservancy
Email: jfargione@tnc.org