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Not all mining is equal: The impact of lithium production technology on land, water, and emissions footprints through 2040

Published Article

Global

Publication date: June 20, 2026

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This study examines the environmental footprints of lithium production through 2040 under multiple supply scenarios. Comparing hard rock mining, brine evaporation, and direct lithium extraction, the research shows that wider adoption of direct lithium extraction could substantially reduce land conversion, freshwater consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.

Subject Tags

  • Land management
  • Renewable energy

Abstract

As electrification accelerates, global lithium demand is rising. Lithium production pathways—hard rock mining, brine evaporation, and direct lithium extraction (DLE)—exhibit distinct land, water, and greenhouse gas footprints. We analyze how adoption of DLE, an emerging extraction technology, could reshape these impacts through 2040 under three global supply scenarios. Using Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2024 supply projections, we constructed a business-as-usual (BAU), a moderately aggressive DLE, and an aggressive DLE scenario. The amount of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE; a standard measure that expresses lithium content across different compounds in terms of lithium carbonate) produced each year was constant across scenarios. We mapped footprints of operational hard-rock mines and evaporation facilities and combined these with literature-derived impact factors (CO2 emissions and freshwater consumption per ton of LCE) and representative DLE facility data to estimate future land use, freshwater consumption, and CO2 emissions. Under BAU, hard rock and evaporation have similar current footprints (∼300 km2) and together add ∼600 km2 by 2040, while DLE's facility footprint is minimal (50 km2 added under BAU). Shifting to DLE (moderate/aggressive scenarios) could avoid 141–381 km2 of land conversion (20-50% reduction), reduce total freshwater use by ∼11% −32%, and lower CO2 emissions by ∼9%-44%, respectively. Deployment of DLE technologies offers a technically plausible pathway to substantially reduce the land, water, and climate footprints of lithium supply, though realized benefits will depend strongly on DLE technology choice, site reinjection practices, energy sources, and the rate at which DLE can scale and displace other lithium production pathways.

Citation

Elizabeth L. Kalies, Matthew Ganser, Nicolás A. Grosso-Giordano, Joseph P. Fargione, Not all mining is equal: The impact of lithium production technology on land, water, and emissions footprints through 2040, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 569, 2026, 148714, ISSN 0959-6526, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148714.

TNC Authors