Global phenology maps reveal the drivers and effects of seasonal asynchrony
Seasonal rhythms of plant growth vary widely across Earth, yet global mapping has struggled to capture the full complexity of land surface phenology (LSP), especially in arid and tropical regions. Using a data‑driven analysis of worldwide satellite imagery, this study reveals global patterns of phenological diversity, including convergence among similar climates and fine‑scale heterogeneity shaped by topoclimate, ecohydrology and vegetation structure. Mapping phenological asynchrony identifies hotspots in tropical mountains and Mediterranean regions, supporting the idea that climatically similar tropical sites can exhibit high seasonal asynchrony. The global LSP map also predicts discontinuities in flowering times, genetic divergence and harvest seasonality, demonstrating the power of remote sensing for understanding ecological and evolutionary consequences of asynchronous phenology.
Subject Tags
- Biodiversity
- Climate impacts
- Life Sciences
Abstract
Terrestrial plant communities show great variation in their annual rhythms of growth, or seasonal phenology. The geographical patterns resulting from this variation, known as land surface phenology (LSP), contain valuable information for the study of ecosystem function, plant ecophysiology, landscape ecology and evolutionary biogeography. Yet globally consistent LSP mapping has been hampered by methods that struggle to represent the full range of seasonal phenologies occurring across terrestrial biomes, especially the subtle and complex phenologies of many arid and tropical ecosystems. Here, using a data-driven analysis of satellite imagery to map LSP worldwide, we provide insights into Earth’s phenological diversity, documenting both intercontinental convergence between similar climates and regional heterogeneity associated with topoclimate, ecohydrology and vegetation structure. We then map spatial phenological asynchrony and the modes of asynchronous seasonality that control it, identifying hotspots of asynchrony in tropical mountains and Mediterranean climate regions and reporting evidence for the hypothesis that climatically similar sites exhibit greater phenological asynchrony within the tropics. Finally, we find that our global LSP map predicts complex geographical discontinuities in flowering phenology, genetic divergence and even harvest seasonality across a range of taxa, establishing remote sensing as a crucial tool for understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of allochrony by allopatry.
Citation
Terasaki Hart, D. E., Bùi, T. N., Di Maggio, L., & Wang, I. J. (2025). Global phenology maps reveal the drivers and effects of seasonal asynchrony. Nature, 645(8079), 133-140. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09410-3
TNC Authors
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Drew E. Terasaki Hart
The Nature Conservancy