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Effective restoration can avoid peatland fires: Large scale counterfactual assessment in Kalimantan, Indonesia

Published Article

Indonesia

Publication date: June 19, 2026

File format: URL

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This study assesses the effectiveness of peatland restoration through peat rewetting in West and Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Using a counterfactual analysis, researchers found that strategically placed canal blocks can reduce peat fires, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and generate substantial economic returns while supporting long term peatland conservation.

Subject Tags

  • Habitat restoration
  • Carbon storage
  • Climate mitigation

Summary

Peatland fires are the third largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Indonesia, a country that stores over half of the world’s tropical peatland carbon. These fires cause significant economic losses to human health, crops, and forests. After the devastating 2015 fires, the Government of Indonesia and several partners initiated large scale restoration efforts via peat rewetting with canal blocks. We report on a statistical counterfactual evaluation of peat rewetting on fire occurrence in peatlands in West and Central Kalimantan from 2017 to 2022. We find heterogeneous impacts of rewetting: canal blocks with overlapping rewetted areas were the most effective for avoiding fires. If all canal blocks were effective, rewetting could avoid up to 6.4% of the burnt area, reduce 0.4 MtCO2e emissions, and deliver economic returns of more than a 100% in 10 years in the best performing locations.

Citation

Castro, M., Ritonga, R., Masuda, Y., Asyhari, A., Novita, N., Gangga, A., ... & Leavitt, S. (2026). Effective restoration can avoid peatland fires: Large scale counterfactual assessment in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Iscience, 29(6).

TNC Authors

  • Miguel Castro
    Peatlands Technical Advisor
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: miguel.castro@tnc.org

  • Nisa Novita
    Lead of Peatland Conservation Strategy (MP). Indonesia
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: nisa.novita@tnc.org

  • Adi Gangga
    Regional Manager (Region I). Indonesia
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: adi.gangga@tnc.org

  • James Erbaugh
    Applied Social Scientist. Global Science
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: james.erbaugh@tnc.org

  • Samantha Yeo
    Peatlands Technical Advisor
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: samantha.yeo@tnc.org

  • Sara Leavitt
    MEL Lead, Global Climate
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: sara.leavitt@tnc.org

  • Rasis Ritonga
    The Nature Conservancy

  • Adibtya Asyhari
    The Nature Conservancy

  • Grace Cheptoo
    The Nature Conservancy