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Evaluating Coral Reef Recovery Four Years Post-bleaching and Assessing the Effectiveness of Pre-bleaching Reef Resilience Rankings

Report

Hawaii

Publication date: June 17, 2020

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This report assessed the condition of previously-surveyed reef sites four years after the 2015 mass bleaching event and evaluated resistance and recovery relative to the 2015 reef resilience rankings. The analysis found a downward coral recruitment trajectory and raises concerns about the long-term ability of these reef locations to recover from the 2015 and future stress events.

Subject Tags

  • Climate resilience
  • Reefs
  • Climate adaptation

Introduction

This report assesses coral reef recovery and resilience along the west coast of Hawai‘i Island four years after the major 2015 mass bleaching event. Surveys conducted across 20 reef locations analyze ecological indicators including coral cover, recruitment, species composition, disease prevalence, and fish biomass. Findings show that coral cover has stabilized at reduced levels compared to 2015, while coral recruitment has declined, raising concerns about long‑term recovery potential. Disease prevalence and bleaching persisted in 2019, though less severe than the 2015 event. The study evaluates whether resilience rankings developed prior to bleaching accurately predicted reef resistance and recovery, finding little correlation between rankings and observed outcomes. Results highlight limitations in current resilience assessment approaches and emphasize the need for improved indicators and long‑term monitoring to support effective coral reef management and climate adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

Minton. D., Conklin, E., Carr, R., Lynch, H., Rose, J., Caldwell, Z., & Most, R. 2020. Evaluating Coral Reef Recovery Four Years Post-bleaching and Assessing the Effectiveness of Pre-bleaching Reef Resilience Rankings. The Nature Conservancy. Honolulu, HI. 46 pp.

TNC Authors

  • Eric Conklin
    Marine Science Director, Hawai‘i and Palmyra
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: econklin@tnc.org

  • Ryan Carr
    Marine Monitoring Manager, Hawai‘i
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: rcarr@tnc.org

  • Harry Lynch
    Marine Field Operations Manager
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: hlynch@tnc.org

  • Julia Rose
    Coral Restoration Program Manager
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: julia.rose@tnc.org

TNC Authors

  • Zach Caldwell
    Global Dive Safety Officer
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: zcaldwell@tnc.org