Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications
This review examines state-of-the-art coastal impact models used to assess vulnerability to sea-level rise. It provides guidance for conservation managers and policy makers on selecting models suited to different scales and objectives, highlighting trade-offs in cost, capacity, spatial scale, and impacts covered to support informed adaptation and protection decisions.
Subject Tags
- Conservation Planning
- Coastal
- Climate resilience
Abstract
Conservation managers and policy makers need tools to identify coastal habitats and human communities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal impact models can help determine the vulnerability of areas and populations to changes in sea level. Model outputs may be used to guide decisions about the location and design of future protected areas and development, and to prioritize adaptation of existing protected area investments. This paper reviews state-of-the-art coastal impact models that determine sea-level rise vulnerability and provides guidance to help managers and policy makers determine the appropriateness of various models at local, regional, and global scales. There are a variety of models, each with strengths and weaknesses, that are suited for different management objectives. We find important trade-offs exist regarding the cost and capacity needed to run and interpret the models, the range of impacts they cover, and regarding the spatial scale that each operates which may overstate impacts at one end and underestimate impacts at the other. Understanding these differences is critical for managers and policy makers to make informed decisions about which model to use and how to interpret and apply the results.
Citation
Mcleod, E., Poulter, B., Hinkel, J., Reyes, E., & Salm, R. (2010). Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. Ocean & Coastal Management, 53(9), 507-517.
TNC Authors
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Elizabeth Mcleod
Global Director, Oceans • Global Oceans
The Nature Conservancy
Email: emcleod@tnc.org -
Rodney Salm
The Nature Conservancy
Email: rsalm@tnc.org