Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting
A new Bayesian phylogenetic approach shows plant phenological responses vary more among species than among cues. Temperature responses follow phylogeny, while photoperiod responses are weaker and more uniform. Incorporating phylogeny improves ecological forecasts and predictions of climate‑change impacts.
Subject Tags
- Climate adaptation
- Climate impacts
- Biodiversity
Abstract
The ability to adapt to climate change requires accurate ecological forecasting. Current forecasts, however, have failed to capture important variability in biological responses, especially across species. Here we present a new method using Bayesian hierarchical phylogenetic models and show that species-level differences are larger than the average differences between cues. Applying our method to phenological experiments manipulating temperature and day length we show an underlying phylogenetic structure in plant phenological responses to temperature cues, whereas responses to photoperiod appear weaker, more uniform across species and less phylogenetically constrained. We thus illustrate how a focus on certain clades can bias prediction, but that predictions may be improved by integrating information on phylogeny to better estimate species-level responses. Our approach provides an advance in ecological forecasting, with implications for predicting the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic forces on ecosystems.
Citation
Morales-Castilla, I., Davies, T.J., Legault, G., Buonaiuto, D.M., Chamberlain, C.J., Ettinger, A.K., Garner, M., Jones, F.A., Loughnan, D., Pearse, W.D. and Sodhi, D.S., 2024. Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting. Nature Climate Change, 14(9), pp.989-995. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02102-2
TNC Authors
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Catherine Chamberlain
Lead Climate and Resilience Scientist, North Carolina
The Nature Conservancy
Email: c.chamberlain@tnc.org -
Ailene K Ettinger
Senior Research Ecologist, Washington
The Nature Conservancy
Email: ailene.ettinger@tnc.org