Global evidence of human well-being and biodiversity impacts of natural climate solutions
This study uses large language models to analyze over 2 million papers, mapping global evidence on natural climate solution co‑benefits and trade‑offs. Results show rapid growth in research, uneven coverage, and key gaps in high‑mitigation regions, informing future NCS policy and research.
Subject Tags
- Natural climate solutions
- Nature-based solutions
- Climate resilience
Abstract
Natural climate solutions (NCS) play a critical role in climate change mitigation. NCS can generate win–win co-benefits for biodiversity and human well-being, but they can also involve trade-offs (co-impacts). However, the massive evidence base on NCS co-benefits and possible trade-offs is poorly understood. We employ large language models to assess over 2 million published journal articles, primarily written in English, finding 257,266 relevant studies on NCS co-impacts. Using machine learning methods to extract data (for example, study location, species and other key variables), we create a global evidence map on NCS co-impacts. We find that global evidence on NCS co-impacts has grown approximately tenfold in three decades, and some of the most abundant evidence relates to NCS that have lower mitigation potential. Studies often examine multiple NCS, indicating some natural complementarities. Finally, we identify countries with high carbon mitigation potential but a relatively weak body of evidence on NCS co-impacts. Through effective methods and systematic and representative data on NCS co-impacts, we provide timely insights to inform NCS-related research and action globally.
Citation
Chang, C.H., Erbaugh, J.T., Fajardo, P., Lu, L., Molnár, I., Papp, D., Robinson, B.E., Austin, K.G., Castro, M., Cheng, S.H. and Cook-Patton, S., 2025. Global evidence of human well-being and biodiversity impacts of natural climate solutions. Nature Sustainability, 8(1), pp.75-85. Download this article.
TNC Authors
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James T. Erbaugh
Applied Social Scientist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: james.erbaugh@tnc.org -
Miguel Castro
Natural Climate Solutions Economist in Ecuador
The Nature Conservancy
Email: miguel.castro@tnc.org -
Susan Cook-Patton
Land Reforestation Scientist
The Nature Conservancy
Phone: Phone
Email: susan.cook-patton@tnc.org -
Peter W. Ellis
Director, Global Natural Climate Solutions Science
The Nature Conservancy
Email: pellis@tnc.org -
Timm Kroeger
Senior Environmental Economist
The Nature Conservancy
Phone: Phone
Email: tkroeger@tnc.org -
Robert I. McDonald
Lead Scientist for Nature-Based Solutions and Lead Scientist for Europe
The Nature Conservancy
Email: rob_mcdonald@tnc.org