Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence
High‑resolution climate simulations with improved mesoscale convective system representation show a 41% rise in daily extreme precipitation over land by 2100 under high emissions. These models better capture historical extremes than low‑resolution versions and reveal that mesoscale moisture convergence is a key driver, underestimated threefold in coarse models. Results underscore the importance of high‑resolution modelling for accurate climate‑risk assessments and adaptation planning.
Subject Tags
- Climate impacts
- Climate risks
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current low-resolution climate models struggle to accurately represent key extreme precipitation-generating phenomena, limiting our ability to generate robust and reliable future projections. Here we present an ensemble of climate simulations with a 10-to-25-km resolution and an improved representation of mesoscale convective systems to assess future changes in daily extreme precipitation and its drivers. Our high-resolution simulations more realistically capture the observed spatial distribution and intensity of daily extreme precipitation over the historical period than the 100-km resolution counterparts. In a future scenario with high carbon dioxide emissions, daily extreme precipitation over land could increase by about 41% by 2100, mainly as a result of increased mesoscale moisture convergence. The impact of this dynamical contribution to extreme precipitation is underestimated by a factor of three in the low-resolution model. These results highlight the crucial role of high-resolution climate modelling in constraining future extremes and informing more effective climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies.
Citation
Chang, P., Fu, D., Liu, X., Castruccio, F. S., Prein, A. F., Danabasoglu, G., ... & Bates, S. C. (2026). Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence. Nature Geoscience, 19(1), 33-41. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01859-1
TNC Authors
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Susan C. Bates
Coastal Science Program Manager, Virginia
The Nature Conservancy
Email: susan.bates@tnc.org