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Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation

Published Article

Global

Publication date: June 11, 2025

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Reforestation is a key climate mitigation strategy, yet global estimates of potential area vary widely. Reviewing 89 existing maps and addressing common critiques, this study develops improved global reforestation maps and eight scenarios reflecting different objectives—from ecosystem services to social conflict avoidance and policy alignment. Results show a maximum of 195 Mha available, yielding 2225 TgCO₂e yr⁻¹ of mitigation potential—71–92% lower than previous estimates due to conservative modeling, safeguards and high‑resolution data. If only protected areas are targeted, potential drops to 6 Mha. Few locations satisfy multiple objectives simultaneously, indicating that diverse land types and motivations will be needed to realize reforestation’s ecological and climate benefits.

Subject Tags

  • Climate mitigation
  • Forest
  • Carbon storage

Abstract

Reforestation is a prominent climate change mitigation strategy, but available global maps of reforestation potential are widely criticized and highly variable, which limits their ability to provide robust estimates of both the locations and total area of opportunity. Here we develop global maps that address common critiques, build on a review of 89 reforestation maps created at multiple scales, and present eight reforestation scenarios with varying objectives, including providing ecosystem services, minimizing social conflicts, and delivering government policies. Across scenarios, we find up to 195 Mha (million hectares) are available (2225 TgCO2e (teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalent) per year total net mitigation potential), which is 71–92% smaller than previous estimates because of conservative modeling choices, incorporation of safeguards, and use of recent, high-resolution datasets. This area drops as low as 6 Mha (53 TgCO2e per year total net mitigation potential) if only statutorily protected areas are targeted. Few locations simultaneously achieve multiple objectives, suggesting that a mix of lands and restoration motivations will be needed to capitalize on the many potential benefits of reforestation.

Citation

Fesenmyer, K. A., Poor, E. E., Terasaki Hart, D. E., Veldman, J. W., Fleischman, F., Choksi, P., ... & Cook-Patton, S. C. (2025). Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation. Nature communications, 16(1), 4572. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59799-8

TNC Authors

  • Kurt A. Fesenmyer
    NCS Spatial Data Scientist
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: kurt.fesenmyer@tnc.org

  • Erin E. Poor
    Landscape Ecologist
    The Nature Conservancy

  • Drew E. Terasaki Hart
    The Nature Conservancy

  • Peter W. Ellis
    Director, Global Natural Climate Solutions Science
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: pellis@tnc.org

TNC Authors