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High time- and spatial-resolution climate scenarios of the DISTENDER project according to statistical and dynamical downscaling

Published Article

Europe

Publication date: December 1, 2025

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This study develops high‑resolution European climate scenarios using statistical and dynamical downscaling for the DISTENDER project. A three‑stage statistical method and km‑scale dynamical modeling were applied to multiple Earth System Models across four SSP pathways. Results show precipitation biases of ±10% and temperature biases from −2°C to +1°C historically. Under SSP5‑8.5, southern Europe may see summer precipitation declines up to 20% and warming of +5°C, while northern Europe experiences wetter conditions and +2–3°C warming. Consistent behavior across methods highlights their value for managing uncertainty and supporting local climate‑risk and adaptation planning.

Subject Tags

  • Climate impacts
  • Climate risks
  • Climate adaptation

Abstract

This paper discusses statistical and dynamical methods used to produce local (grid-spacing < 4 km) and European (∼10 km) climate scenarios that were used as input for multi-sectoral impact models in the DevelopIng STratEgies by integrating mitigatioN, aDaptation and participation to climate changE Risks (DISTENDER) project, and shares the main results with a special focus on temperature and precipitation. The statistical downscaling consisted of three stages: (1) a parametric quantile mapping at a daily scale; (2) an analogous-transference function of hourly curves for each day and (3) a classical geostatistical downscaling. This three-stage technique was applied to three representative Earth System Models according to three different climate-change level (being EC-EARTH3-Veg the medium case) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). In addition, dynamical downscaling was also considered. Particularly, the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model downscaled the EC-EARTH3-Veg model to computationally costly km-scale resolution under all four pathways. Both downscaling approaches show consistent behaviour for the downscaled model under the different pathways. Results indicate historical biases in precipitation about ± 10 % in general, while temperature biases ranged from −2°C to + 1°C across different regions and seasons. Under SSP5-8.5, summer precipitation in southern Europe is projected to decrease by up to 20 %, while northern Europe experiences increases of + 10 % to + 15 %. Temperature increases under the same scenario reach + 5°C in summer across southern Europe, with smaller increases of + 2°C to + 3°C in northern regions. These findings on management for uncertainty levels demonstrate the utility of combined downscaling approaches for local climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies.

Citation

Monjo, R., Essa, Y. H., Prado-López, C., Kaur, M., Redolat, D., Paradinas, C., ... & San José, R. (2025). High time-and spatial-resolution climate scenarios of the DISTENDER project according to statistical and dynamical downscaling. Climate Services, 40, 100623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100623

TNC Authors