A globally relevant data-driven assessment of carbon leakage from forestry
Climate‑smart forestry (CSF) is a key natural climate solution, yet leakage estimates often rely on weak assumptions. This study introduces a data‑intensive, dynamic economic‑ecological model showing that leakage varies by CSF activity, forest type, region, timeframe and implementation rate. Crucially, widely used harvest‑leakage metrics fail to capture complex forest dynamics and are poor proxies for carbon leakage—the metric most relevant to CSF. Some project designs can even generate beneficial spillovers, producing negative carbon leakage. These findings strengthen the evidence base for robust leakage accounting and support credible climate benefits in both carbon‑market and non‑market conservation projects.
Subject Tags
- Natural climate solutions
- Forest
- Carbon markets
Abstract
Climate smart forestry (CSF) practices are widely recognized as efficient natural climate solutions. However, leakage accounting for these practices often relies on limited analysis and ad hoc reasoning, leading to integrity concerns and underinvestment in CSF. This study proposes a data-intensive, dynamic economic-ecological modeling approach to estimating regional CSF leakage, with global applicability. Results show how leakage varies by CSF activity, location, forest type, timeframe and implementation rate. Critically, we show that widely cited harvest leakage estimates ignore complex forest dynamics and are a poor proxy for the metric most applicable to CSF implementation: carbon leakage. While harvest leakage is nearly always positive, our results demonstrate that some project designs can result in beneficial carbon spillovers, or negative carbon leakage. These results improve the evidence base for robust leakage quantification in CSF-based projects, enabling more accurate accounting and thereby ensuring credible climate benefits. These results are relevant in a carbon markets context, where robust leakage accounting would help safeguard the credibility of ecosystem service payments, but are also applicable to traditional, non-carbon markets conservation projects seeking to quantify carbon mitigation impacts.
Citation
Daigneault, A., Sohngen, B., Belair, E., & Ellis, P. W. (2025). A globally relevant data-driven assessment of carbon leakage from forestry. Environmental Research Letters, 20(11), 114022. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0ce2
TNC Authors
-
Ethan Belair
Senior Forest Carbon Scientist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: ethan.belair@tnc.org -
Peter W Ellis
Director, Global Natural Climate Solutions Science
The Nature Conservancy
Email: pellis@tnc.org