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Impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) in Mexico

Published Article

Mexico

Publication date: May 1, 2025

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Mexico’s multispecies finfish fishery relies heavily on Lutjanus peru, yet climate change and overfishing threaten its future. Using ecological niche and habitat‑suitability models, this study projects snapper distribution under SSP126 and SSP585 for 2050 and 2100. Under the worst scenario, 24 fishery offices—responsible for 68% of catch and 72% of income—face high negative impacts, increasing vulnerability for dependent communities. Conversely, models predict expanded habitat in the northern Mexican Pacific as waters warm. These findings emphasize the need for climate‑adaptation strategies, including targeted subsidies that reduce inequality, strengthen resilience and support communities most at risk from shifting fishery resources.

Subject Tags

  • Climate impacts
  • Fisheries
  • Wildlife

Abstract

In Mexico, the marine finfish fishery is multi-specific, and its effort is directed to species of commercial interest. The snappers group stands out with the species Lutjanus peru, which is most valued in the Mexican Pacific Ocean. The snapper fishery lacks specific regulatory measures for its management and is threatened by overfishing and climate change. The impact of climate change is one of the main challenges for marine species and coastal communities whose livelihoods depend on fisheries presence and abundance. Predictions indicate a migration of tropical species to the poles, so it is crucial to generate scenarios that forecast future changes in these fishery resources and generate adaptation measures for the communities that depend on them. Our study aimed to evaluate climate change impacts on the snapper fishery through ecological niche modeling and habitat suitability models. We modeled the future distribution of L. peru for 2050 and 2100 under two climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) and analyzed the impact on the fisheries from distribution changes and the dependence of this resource by coastal communities according to official catch records in the fishery offices along the Mexican Pacific. The results show that in the worst scenario (SSP585 to 2100), the zones with the highest and moderate negative impacts are located in around 24 fishery offices where 68% of the catch and 72% of the income occur, increasing the vulnerability of fishing communities due to the reduction in catches and greater fishing effort to compensate for losses. However, most models indicate low and positive impacts, as an increase in the species’ presence is expected in the northern Mexican Pacific Ocean due to a temperature rise. When allocated appropriately, government subsidies can strengthen resilience of fishing communities, by prioritizing the most vulnerable communities and users. Subsidies should focus on eliminating poverty and hunger, decreasing inequality and promoting mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change impacts.

Citation

Aguirre-Villasenor, H., Petatan-Ramirez, D., Morzaria-Luna, H. N., Walther, M., Rodríguez-Flores, Z. M., Zamora-Garcia, N. I., ... & Espino-Barr, E. (2025). Impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) in Mexico. Ocean & Coastal Management, 264, 107601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107601

TNC Authors

  • Mariana Walther Mendoza
    Gulf of California Fisheries Lead, Mexico and North Central America
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: mariana.walther@tnc.org