Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system
Study assesses low‑carbon energy in Southern Africa, finding strong wind and solar potential but 40% of hydropower projects face conflicts. Protections shift the energy mix toward renewables and storage, reducing hydropower. Meeting climate and environmental goals raises system costs modestly (3–6%) while avoiding major impacts.
Subject Tags
- Business and Industry
- Carbon markets
- Renewable energy
Abstract
The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.
Citation
Wu, G.C., Deshmukh, R., Trainor, A., Uppal, A., Chowdhury, A.K., Baez, C., Martin, E., Higgins, J., Mileva, A. and Ndhlukula, K., 2024. Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system. Nature Communications, 15(1), p.1083. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45313-z
TNC Authors
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Anne Trainor
Landscape Ecologist, Africa
The Nature Conservancy
Email: anne.trainor@tnc.org -
Erik Martin
Geospatial Web Application Developer
The Nature Conservancy
Email: emartin@tnc.org -
Jonathan Higgins
The Nature Conservancy