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Accounting for albedo in carbon market protocols

Published Article

Global

Publication date: October 6, 2025

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Some Voluntary Carbon Market projects may overestimate climate benefits by ignoring albedo change. Analyzing 172 afforestation, reforestation and revegetation projects, this study finds over 10% occur where albedo could fully negate mitigation gains, and a quarter where benefits may be halved. Yet most projects are sited where albedo effects are minimal, and 9% may even gain additional cooling benefits. With new data enabling albedo accounting, the authors propose an iterative approach for integrating albedo into carbon credit protocols and call for tools to quantify other biophysical effects such as evapotranspiration. Incorporating these factors will improve credit accuracy and prioritize projects with genuine climate impact.

Subject Tags

  • Climate mitigation
  • Carbon markets
  • Climate impacts

Abstract

The climate benefits of some Voluntary Carbon Market projects may be overestimated due to a lack of accounting for albedo change. Here we analyze 172 Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation projects within the market and find more than 10% occur in places where albedo may entirely negate the climate mitigation benefit, and a quarter occur in places where albedo may halve the mitigation benefit. Yet, the majority are concentrated where albedo changes are expected to be minimal, and 9% of projects occur where albedo would augment the mitigation benefit. Recent data are making albedo accounting possible, and we outline an iterative approach for incorporating albedo considerations into carbon crediting protocols to prioritize projects with greater climate benefit and more accurately quantify credits that may be used to address unabated emissions. We also call on the scientific community to create tools to enable accounting for other important biophysical changes, such as evapotranspiration, which is not yet quantifiable within the Voluntary Carbon Market.

Citation

Riley, L. M., Cook-Patton, S. C., Albert, L. P., Still, C. J., Williams, C. A., & Bukoski, J. J. (2025). Accounting for albedo in carbon market protocols. Nature Communications, 16(1), 8810. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64317-x

TNC Authors