Resilient Coastal Sites for Conservation in the Gulf

About the report

Sea levels are expected to rise by 1 to 6 feet over the next century, and coastal sites vary markedly in their ability to accommodate such inundation. Sites flanked by extensive lowlands provide space for the coastal habitats within to migrate landward in response to sea level rise. The amount of space available for habitat migration is determined by the landforms, topography, and elevation rise surrounding the tidal zone. However, that potential habitat migration can be strongly influenced by human activities. Even a site that is naturally predisposed to allow for migration may not be able to accommodate sea-level rise if development or disturbances interfere with natural processes. For example, hardened shoreline can create barriers to migration, a lack of sediment can prevent the necessary accumulation of substrate, and an overabundance of nitrogen can disrupt root development, destabilizing the marsh.

In this study, scientists from The Nature Conservancy evaluated over 1,500 coastal sites in the Gulf for their capacity to sustain biodiversity and natural services under increasing inundation from sea level. Each site received a resilience “score” based on the likelihood that its coastal habitats can and will migrate to adjacent lowlands.

The products of this study include: 

• A web map allowing users to view and interact with the results for any coastal site 
• Downloadable datasets including results for additional sea level rise scenarios 
• To see how the migration space of resilient coastal sites was incorporated into the terrestrial Resilient & Connected Network (RCN), please visit the Resilient Land Mapping Tool.

Citation:

Anderson, M.G. and Barnett, A. (2019). Resilient Coastal Sites for Conservation in the Gulf of Mexico US. The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science.