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The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Published Article

United States

Publication date: January 22, 2025

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Conservation translocations aim to reduce extinction risk, yet success often hinges on environmental fit. Using 235 U.S. plant translocations, this study shows that climate suitability of recipient sites is the strongest predictor of population persistence, while next‑generation recruitment and maturity depend heavily on species niche characteristics. Random‑forest models comparing geographic, environmental and conventional predictors reveal that spatial and climatic variables are as informative as founder size or other traditional metrics. Species in biotically limiting environments or with broad precipitation niches were least likely to achieve next‑generation benchmarks. These findings highlight opportunities to improve translocation outcomes by integrating spatial modeling into planning alongside established best‑practice guidelines.

Subject Tags

  • Climate resilience
  • Forest
  • Conservation Planning

Abstract

  1. Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species-environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data.
  2. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g., founder population size).
  3. Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks.
  4. Synthesis and applications. Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Citation

Bellis, J., Albrecht, M. A., Maschinski, J., Dalrymple, S. E., Keir, M. J., Chambers, T., ... & Heineman, K. D. (2025). The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 62(3), 638-650. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14855

TNC Authors

  • Charlotte M. Reemts
    Ecologist & Science Program Director, Texas
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: creemts@tnc.org