Amphibian strongholds: protected areas and the future of direct-developing frogs of the genus Ischnocnema in the Atlantic forest under climate change
Direct‑developing frogs of the genus Ischnocnema face significant climate‑driven distribution changes in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. Using ensemble species‑distribution models across multiple climate scenarios for 2050 and 2090, researchers found substantial range contractions for several species. Although all 16 species are currently well represented within protected areas, future projections show increasing dependence on these areas—especially integral‑protection reserves—as sustainable‑use areas offer less coverage. Primary forests remain strongholds for long‑term persistence. Results underscore the urgency of conservation planning that integrates climate projections, land‑use change and species’ limited dispersal capacity.
Subject Tags
- Forest
- Climate impacts
- Wildlife
Abstract
Among the highly diverse amphibians of the Atlantic Forest (AF), and deviating from the usually biphasic reproductive mode, are direct-developing frogs. Predicting how species will respond to climate change scenarios and knowing the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) are essential for planning conservation strategies. Thus, the present study aimed to (i) model current and future distributions of 16 direct-developing anuran species of the genus Ischnocnema; (ii) predict changes in the distributions of these species under two climate change scenarios (moderate and extreme) for 2050 and 2090; and (iii) evaluate the degree of protection of these species in the AF. Distribution models were generated for the 16 species using the ensemble of small models approach, incorporating four different algorithms, five general circulation models and scenarios considering land-use as well as both full and no-dispersal models. The direct-developing anurans’ protection degree was evaluated through the mean percentage overlay and compared among PAs types (integral protection, sustainable use and both together). Results predicted substantial changes in the distribution areas of these species, including significant distribution area losses for some species. All 16 species are currently overrepresented by the PAs, with a future tendency for increases in the overlapping of their distributions by PAs, except by sustainable use PAs. The PAs also serve as true strongholds for these species. These areas will likely have even greater importance for direct-developing anurans conservation in the future which will face possible losses to their distribution areas and greater restriction to PAs.
Citation
Fontana, R. B., Brum, F. T., Both, C., & Hartz, S. M. (2025). Amphibian strongholds: protected areas and the future of direct-developing frogs of the genus Ischnocnema in the Atlantic forest under climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation, 34(13), 4765-4783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-025-03178-8
TNC Authors
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Fernanda Thiesen Brum
Spatial Prioritization Scientist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: fernanda.brum@tnc.org