Improving theories of change in conservation projects

Published Article

Global

Publication date: October 15, 2024

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A structured review of 22 publications identified core theory‑of‑change components, refined over 3 years with 73 teams in 18 countries, resulting in practical guidance for building strong conservation project theories of change.

Subject Tags

  • Data Science and Artificial Intelligence
  • Conservation Planning
  • Social Sciences

Abstract

Theory of change has become a common tool in project design because it helps teams agree on hypothesized causal pathways to a desired goal and examine their underlying assumptions. Yet, a consensus has not emerged on the specific steps and components of a theory of change. What constitutes a theory of change? Using 22 theory of change publications, we did a structured analysis of the components of a theory of change. Where there was substantial agreement among the publications on a specific component of a theory of change, we included it in the first iteration of our approach. We then ordered the components in a logical sequence, developed guidance for each component, tested them with project teams, and revised them in an iterative process. We tested and refined our guidance over 3 years with 73 teams from 18 countries. Here, we share our learning and recommendations for those interested in developing a robust theory of change for a conservation project.

Citations

Leisher, C., Bugan, R. and Ngo, S., 2024. Improving theories of change in conservation projects. Conservation Science and Practice6(11), p.e13248.  https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.13248

TNC Authors

  • Craig Leisher
    Portfolio Director, Africa
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: craig.leisher@tnc.org

  • Richard Bugan
    Conservation Impact Data Scientist & Manager
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: richard.bugan@tnc.org

  • Sarah Ngo
    Director of Products and Practices
    The Nature Conservancy
    Email: sarah.ngo@tnc.org