Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification
A two‑year mesocosm study shows coral reef communities exposed to warming and acidification shift in structure but persist as diverse calcifying systems. Contrary to collapse predictions, reefs may endure in altered states if climate warming is limited to Paris Agreement targets.
Subject Tags
- Reefs
- Coastal
- Climate mitigation
Abstract
Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (−0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, −0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse.
Citation
Jury, C.P., Bahr, K.D., Cros, A., Dobson, K.L., Freel, E.B., Graham, A.T., McLachlan, R.H., Nelson, C.E., Price, J.T., Rocha de Souza, M. and Shizuru, L., 2024. Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(45), p.e2407112121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.24071121
TNC Authors
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Annick Cros
Reef Resilience Network Science and Training Specialist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: annick.cros@tnc.org