Evaluating alternative future sea-level rise scenarios
This study examines competing interpretations of sea-level rise trends, arguing that linear projections reflect only a minimum estimate. Drawing on climate science, it stresses the importance of evaluating alternative future sea-level rise scenarios that account for accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, warming oceans, and ice melt to inform responsible policy and planning.
Subject Tags
- Climate impacts
- Conservation Planning
- Coastal
Abstract
This study evaluates how future sea-level rise scenarios should be assessed in light of accelerating climate change. While acknowledging that sea levels are rising, the authors argue that linear projections based solely on historical trends represent only a minimum estimate of future sea-level rise. Such projections assume that future conditions will mirror the recent past, an assumption that overlooks well-established physical and chemical processes linking increasing greenhouse gas concentrations to global warming, ice melt, and ocean expansion. The study critiques the view that the absence of past acceleration precludes future acceleration, emphasizing that continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions is expected to drive faster sea-level rise. It highlights the scientific and policy importance of evaluating a broader range of plausible sea-level rise scenarios, particularly for assessing risks to coastal infrastructure, ecosystems, and civil works projects. By advocating for more comprehensive scenario analysis, the study supports more informed and precautionary decision-making under climate uncertainty.
Citation
Shepard, C. C., Agostini, V. N., Gilmer, B., Allen, T., Stone, J., Brooks, W., & Beck, M. W. (2012). Evaluating alternative future sea-level rise scenarios. Natural hazards, 63(2), 1223-1224.
TNC Authors
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Ben Gilmer
Director, Large Scale Fisheries. Provide Food and Water
The Nature Conservancy
Email: ben.gilmer@tnc.org -
Michael W. Beck
Dir of Marketing & Comms, Tackle Climate Change • Marketing
The Nature Conservancy
Email: michael.becker@tnc.org -
Vera N. Agostini
The Nature Conservancy