Landscape Conservation Forecasting for data-poor at-risk species on western public lands, United States
Published paper in Climate on Landscape Conservation Forecasting for data-poor at-risk species on western public lands, United States. The paper shares work in the Black Mountains in Utah to inform vegetation management supporting at-risk greater sage-grous and Utah prairie dog planning.
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Subject Tags
- Conservation Planning
- Ecosystem management
- Climate resilience
Abstract
Managing vast federal public lands governed by multiple land use policies creates challenges when demographic data on at-risk species are lacking. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management Cedar City Field Office used this project in the Black Mountains (Utah) to inform vegetation management supporting at-risk greater sage-grouse and Utah prairie dog planning. Ecological systems were mapped from satellite remote sensing imagery and used to model species habitat suitability under two levels of management activity (custodial, preferred) and climate scenarios for historic and two global circulation models. Spatial state-and-transition models of ecological systems were simulated for all six scenarios up to 60 years while coupled with expert-developed habitat suitability indices. All ecological systems are at least moderately departed from reference conditions in 2012, whereas habitat suitability was 50.5% and 48.4% for sage-grouse and prairie dog, respectively. Management actions replaced non-native annual grasslands with perennial grasses, removed conifers, and controlled exotic forbs. The drier climate most affected ecological departure and prairie dog habitat suitability at 30 years only. Different climates influenced spatial patterns of sage-grouse habitat suitability, but nonspatial values were unchanged. Climate impacts on fire, vegetation succession, and restoration explain many results. Front-loading restoration is predicted to benefit under future drier climate.
Citation
Provencher L, Badik K, Anderson T, Tuhy J, Fletcher D, York E, Byer S. 2021. Landscape Conservation Forecasting for data-poor at-risk species on western public lands, United States. Climate 9:79. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9050079
TNC Authors
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Louis Provencher
Nevada Director of Science
The Nature Conservancy -
Kevin Badik
Nevada Rangeland Ecologist
The Nature Conservancy
Email: kevin.badik@tnc.org -
Tanya Anderson
Nevada Project Manager
The Nature Conservancy
Email: tanderson@tnc.org -
Elaine York
Utah West Desert Regional Director
The Nature Conservancy
Email: eyork@tnc.org -
Sarah Byer
Nevada GIS / Spatial Analyst
The Nature Conservancy
Email: sarah.byer@tnc.org