Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change

Abstract

Montane Cloud Forests (MCFs) exhibit distinct hydrological behavior compared to most other forests and are characterized by a very high diversity of restricted-range (endemic) species. They are among the most threatened ecosystems on Earth due to habitat loss and climate change, which jointly undermine their biodiversity and water-provisioning services. Effective conservation planning therefore requires detailed assessments of both their current and projected distribution of MCFs, as well as the ecosystem services they provide. Here, we evaluate the effects of two climate change scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, on the distribution of MCFs across South America and assess potential consequences for water supply to downstream populations. Using an ensemble consensus of eight machine-learning and regression models, we estimate that by 2070 approximately 12% (RCP2.6) and 91% (RCP8.5) of climatically suitable area for MCFs could be lost. These contractions would affect about 27% and 83% of the downstream populations currently benefiting from MCF-regulated water supply, respectively. Only about one-third of MCFs, under both current and future climate conditions, fall within existing protected areas. Our results underscore the urgent need for enhanced conservation and restoration initiatives, coupled with stronger global efforts to mitigate climate change, if these unique headwater ecosystems and their critical services are to persist.

Citation

Pompeu, P. V., Mulligan, M., Bruijnzeel, L. A., Pires-Oliveira, J. C., Ponette-González, A. G., Brauman, K. A., ... & Da Rocha, H. R. (2025). Most South American cloud forests are likely to disappear under high-end climate change. Journal for Nature Conservation, 127192.