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Integrated Estimates of Forest Expansion Opportunity in New York State

Published Article

New York

Publication date: February 24, 2026

File format: URL

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This study assesses forest expansion as a climate mitigation strategy by integrating land suitability with private landowner willingness in New York, USA. Accounting for social preferences and excluding active agriculture, results show that feasible forest expansion reaches only one‑fifth of the state’s climate target, highlighting the need for tailored conservation support.

Subject Tags

  • Natural climate solutions
  • Forest
  • Climate mitigation

Abstract

Forest expansion is an important climate mitigation strategy in support of decarbonization efforts. Estimates of land-based potential for forest expansion and other natural climate solutions typically neglect key social dimensions that shape land conversion opportunity. Building on our previous work that examines landowner willingness to expand forest, our analysis integrates estimates of potential for converting land into forest with social preferences of private landowners in New York, United States. We estimate that, when accounting for landowner willingness and excluding land in active agriculture, the maximum amount of land where there is opportunity in New York is 352,000 acres, about one-fifth of the State’s 1.7-million-acre goal. Support for local conservation practitioners and landowner-tailored programming must be expanded to meet climate mitigation goals.

Citation

Armstrong, A., Stedman, R. C., Richardson, D., Walsh, K. B., & Zimmerman, C. (2026). Integrated Estimates of Forest Expansion Opportunity in New York State. Environmental Management, 76(4), 114.

TNC Authors