Biodiversity impacts and conservation implications of urban land expansion projected to 2050
Urban land is projected to expand by up to 1.5 million km² by 2050, driving habitat loss for over 30,000 terrestrial vertebrate species. This study models impacts under three socioeconomic scenarios, revealing that up to 855 species face severe imperilment and that biodiversity losses will concentrate in rapidly urbanizing tropical regions.
Subject Tags
- Biodiversity
- Land management
Abstract
As the global urban population grows by 2.5 billion over the next 30 years, urban land conversions will increasingly drive habitat and biodiversity loss. Using spatially explicit projections, this study assesses habitat loss for 30,393 terrestrial vertebrate species under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2015 to 2050. Urban expansion contributes to ≥5% of total habitat loss for roughly one-third of species and directly imperils 2–3% (459–855 species), causing at least one-quarter of a net habitat loss of 10% or more. Urban impact hotspots—clusters responsible for 70–75% of predicted losses—are concentrated in tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Mesoamerica, and Southeast Asia. Results underscore the need to integrate urban land management into global biodiversity strategies and prioritize conservation in high-risk regions.
Citation
Simkin RD, Seto KC, McDonald RI, Jetz W. (2022). Biodiversity impacts and conservation implications of urban land expansion projected to 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(12), e2117297119.
Media Contacts
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Robert McDonald
Lead Scientist - NBS Europe
The Nature Conservancy
Email: rob_mcdonald@tnc.org