Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world
Shifting outdoor work to cooler hours could recover 30% of heat-related labor losses today, but this adaptation declines by 2% per degree of global warming, as early mornings grow unsafe—highlighting urgent need for alternative strategies and climate action.
Subject Tags
- Climate impacts
- Climate risks
Abstract
Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.
Citation
Parsons, L.A., Shindell, D., Tigchelaar, M., Zhang, Y. and Spector, J.T., 2021. Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world. Nature communications, 12(1), p.7286.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27328-y
Media Contacts
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The Nature Conservancy