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Climate vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates in the U.S. South Atlantic large marine ecosystem

Published Article

Florida

Publication date: June 25, 2025

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A trait-based climate vulnerability assessment evaluated 71 fish and invertebrate species in the U.S. South Atlantic. Two-thirds were highly vulnerable under RCP 8.5, especially diadromous species, invertebrates, and deepwater reef fishes. Ocean acidification, temperature, and salinity were key drivers. Many species may shift distribution, informing research, conservation, and adaptive management priorities.

Subject Tags

  • Coastal
  • Fisheries
  • Climate adaptation

Abstract

Trait-based climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) is a rapid and repeatable approach to simultaneously assess the vulnerability of a large number of species to projected regional changes in climate. We conducted the first CVA in the U.S. South Atlantic Large Marine Ecosystem for 71 ecologically, economically, and culturally important fish and invertebrate species. The CVA was conducted by a 16-member panel based on scoring 12 biological sensitivity attributes and seven climate exposure factors. About two-thirds of the species were considered highly vulnerable to future climate projected under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, with diadromous species, invertebrates, and deepwater reef fishes the most vulnerable functional groups. Ocean acidification, sea surface temperature, and salinity were the exposure factors with the greatest influence on climate vulnerability, while population growth rate, population status, and early life history traits were the most important biological sensitivity attributes. More than two-thirds of the species had high potential for shifts in geographic distribution, due mostly to the prevalence of broadcast spawning, extensive larval dispersal, and high adult mobility of many species, and the generalist habitat requirements of several estuary-dependent and hard-bottom reef species. These results can be used to prioritize conservation, research, and management efforts, and identify key uncertainties related to the impacts of future climate on fishery resources in the U.S. South Atlantic region.

Citation

Craig JK, Runde BJ, Bacheler NM, Burton ML, Muñoz RC, Quinlan JA, et al. (2025). Climate vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates in the U.S. South Atlantic large marine ecosystem. PLOS Climate, 4(6): e0000543.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000543

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