Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States
Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows across the western United States, reducing spring and summer opportunities while expanding some winter burn periods. These shifts affect fuel conditions, staffing, smoke management, and long‑term fire planning for agencies and land stewards.
Subject Tags
- Fire management
- Climate impacts
Abstract
Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes—including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as “prescribed fire,” can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (−17%), particularly during spring (−25%) and summer (−31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.
Citation
Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C., Shive, K., Kalashnikov, D. A., Singh, D., & Smith, E. (2023). Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 340.
TNC Authors
-
Daniel Swain
The Nature Conservancy -
Kristen Shive
The Nature Conservancy -
Edward Smith
The Nature Conservancy