A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

PLOS ONE
2015
Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph
Publisher N/A
SourceWeb of Science
Volume / Issue10-Oct
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ISBN N/A
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0138334
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Publication DateOCT 7 2015
Article Datee0138334
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AbstractA growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the worldÍs biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the EarthÍs at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.
Created: 12/14/2017 10:29 AM (ET)
Modified: 12/14/2017 10:29 AM (ET)
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